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	<title>reporting &#8211; Terence Eden’s Blog</title>
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	<title>reporting &#8211; Terence Eden’s Blog</title>
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		<title><![CDATA[BBC, BNP and Statistics]]></title>
		<link>https://shkspr.mobi/blog/2009/10/bbc-bnp-statistics/</link>
					<comments>https://shkspr.mobi/blog/2009/10/bbc-bnp-statistics/#comments</comments>
				<dc:creator><![CDATA[@edent]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 29 Oct 2009 10:22:32 +0000</pubDate>
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		<category><![CDATA[BBC]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[bnp]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[reporting]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[statistics]]></category>
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					<description><![CDATA[There are 10 types of people in the world. Those who understand statistics and those who don&#039;t. ±8.  Ever since I took GCSE and A-Level statistics, I&#039;ve had a healthy appreciation for the way they are presented to the public.  I vividly remember my grandmother shouting at the television one night. The news presenter had said &#34;20% of people polled - that&#039;s nearly a quarter...&#34; Before she could …]]></description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>There are 10 types of people in the world. Those who understand statistics and those who don't. ±8.</p>

<p>Ever since I took GCSE and A-Level statistics, I've had a healthy appreciation for the way they are presented to the public.</p>

<p>I vividly remember my grandmother shouting at the television one night. The news presenter had said "20% of people polled - that's nearly a quarter..." Before she could finish, my grandmother loudly interjected, "Nearly a quarter? It's exactly a fifth!"</p>

<p>The way people see, hear and understand statistics is very complex. It's a rich mine of study for economists, neuroscientists and anthropologists. Given its complexity, shouldn't we me making it as easy to understand as possible?</p>

<p>I'm going to show you a few poorly presented statistics from the BBC News site. I pick on the BBC only because it's the site I read most often. Other news services are just as bad.</p>

<h2 id="bnp"><a href="https://shkspr.mobi/blog/2009/10/bbc-bnp-statistics/#bnp">BNP</a></h2>

<p>There is much wailing and gnashing of teeth at the apparent bump in the polls the fascists got following their<span style="text-decoration: line-through;"> Grand Wizard's</span> leader's appearance on Question Time. Here's how it's reported.</p>

<h3 id="bnp-support-in-poll-sparks-anger"><a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/8323638.stm">BNP support in poll sparks anger </a><a href="https://shkspr.mobi/blog/2009/10/bbc-bnp-statistics/#bnp-support-in-poll-sparks-anger">🔗</a></h3>

<blockquote><p>The opinion poll carried out after Mr Griffin's appearance found 22% of voters would consider voting BNP in a future local, general or European election.</p>

<p>Two-thirds of the 1,314 people polled by YouGov for the Daily Telegraph dismissed voting for the party under any circumstances, with the rest unsure.</p>

<p>When asked how they would vote in an election tomorrow, the proportion supporting the BNP stood at 3%, up from 2% a month ago.</p>

<p>However, more than half of those polled said they agreed or thought when asked if the party had a point in speaking up for the interests of "indigenous, white British people".</p></blockquote>

<p>I don't want to comment on the validity of the poll - but the way in which its results are presented make it really quite difficult to gain a quick understanding of the situation.</p>

<p>The stats are presented in <em>four </em>different formats.</p>

<ul>
    <li> Numerical: "22%"</li>
    <li> Verbal: "More than half"</li>
    <li> Fractional: "Two-Thirds"</li>
    <li>Relational: "x% up from y%"</li>
</ul>

<p>This means that within 4 paragraphs the user has to switch their mental model of how the statistics are represented 4 times.&nbsp; It makes it hard to easily compare the statistics on offer.&nbsp; It leads to confusion and, ultimately, ignorance of what is being reported.</p>

<p>In the above example, what percentage of people were "Unsure"?</p>

<p>Off the top of your head, is two-sevenths greater or less than 22%?&nbsp; By how much?</p>

<p>Political Party X has seen its support drop by nearly a third to just over 40%.&nbsp; What was the party's original level of support?</p>

<p>These head-scratchers become easier when expressed in a common base - or when set out graphically.</p>

<p><a href="http://www.florence-nightingale-avenging-angel.co.uk/GraphicsPaper/Graphics.htm">Florence Nightingale is credited with creating the Pie Chart</a> in order to explain to non-statistical civil servants the problems she faced in the war. While <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090721231157/http://www.usablemarkets.com/2006/11/05/how-to-make-a-pie-chart-hint-dont/">Pie Charts have some usability problems</a>, there's no reason why a suitable graphical representation of the numbers can't be shown.&nbsp; It allows those less versed in numerical reasoning a chance to evaluate the data presented.</p>

<p>The joke at the top of the page is based on the classic <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091030183852/http://www.thinkgeek.com/tshirts-apparel/unisex/frustrations/5aa9/">Binary Joke</a>.&nbsp; It relies on your confusion between base-10 and base-2.&nbsp; When you mix and match different ways of expressing statistics, you might as well be mixing binary, decimal, and hexadecimal.&nbsp; When reporting on statistics, clarity is the key to comprehension.</p>
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