<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?>
<?xml-stylesheet href="https://shkspr.mobi/blog/wp-content/themes/edent-wordpress-theme/rss-style.xsl" type="text/xsl"?>
<rss version="2.0"
	xmlns:content="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/content/"
	    xmlns:wfw="http://wellformedweb.org/CommentAPI/"
	     xmlns:dc="http://purl.org/dc/elements/1.1/"
	   xmlns:atom="http://www.w3.org/2005/Atom"
	     xmlns:sy="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/syndication/"
	  xmlns:slash="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/slash/"
	>
<channel>
	<title>logic &#8211; Terence Eden’s Blog</title>
	<atom:link href="https://shkspr.mobi/blog/tag/logic/feed/" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" />
	<link>https://shkspr.mobi/blog</link>
	<description>Regular nonsense about tech and its effects 🙃</description>
	<lastBuildDate>Wed, 04 Dec 2024 08:19:21 +0000</lastBuildDate>
	<language>en-GB</language>
	<sy:updatePeriod>hourly</sy:updatePeriod>
	<sy:updateFrequency>1</sy:updateFrequency>
	<generator>https://wordpress.org/?v=6.9.4</generator>

<image>
	<url>https://shkspr.mobi/blog/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/cropped-avatar-32x32.jpeg</url>
	<title>logic &#8211; Terence Eden’s Blog</title>
	<link>https://shkspr.mobi/blog</link>
	<width>32</width>
	<height>32</height>
</image> 
	<item>
		<title><![CDATA[First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you lose]]></title>
		<link>https://shkspr.mobi/blog/2015/12/first-they-ignore-you-then-they-laugh-at-you-then-they-fight-you-then-you-lose/</link>
					<comments>https://shkspr.mobi/blog/2015/12/first-they-ignore-you-then-they-laugh-at-you-then-they-fight-you-then-you-lose/#comments</comments>
				<dc:creator><![CDATA[@edent]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 04 Dec 2015 17:34:24 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[/etc/]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[logic]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[quotes]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[statistics]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://shkspr.mobi/blog/?p=22099</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[I&#039;ve just read an interesting article by M.G. Siegler entitled - &#34;What you’re working on sucks, just give up now, they said.&#34;  It can be summed up thus:  Commentators said our startup wouldn&#039;t work. Our startup did, in fact, suceed. ∴ All commentators are wrong about whether startups will work.  This exhibits one of my favourite logical fallacies - survivorship bias.  If you only look at the win…]]></description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I've just read an interesting article by M.G. Siegler entitled - "<a href="https://500ish.com/first-61858a79d6de">What you’re working on sucks, just give up now, they said.</a>"</p>

<p>It can be summed up thus:</p>

<p>Commentators said our startup wouldn't work.
Our startup did, in fact, suceed.
∴ All commentators are wrong about whether startups will work.</p>

<p>This exhibits one of my favourite logical fallacies - survivorship bias.  If you only look at the winners, the world looks very different from reality.  It's why we think that products made in the past were of superior quality - only the ones which managed not to deteriorate over the last 50 years are with us because the crappy ones died long ago.</p>

<p>For us to examine whether there's any merit to ignoring the commentariat we need to look at, broadly speaking, four categories of companies:</p>

<ul>
    <li>Commentators said it sucked, and they were <strong>wrong</strong>.</li>
    <li>Commentators said it sucked, and they were <strong>right</strong>.</li>
    <li>Commentators said it rocked, and they were <strong>wrong</strong>.</li>
    <li>Commentators said it rocked, and they were <strong>right</strong>.</li>
</ul>

<p>By picking on only the first category, M.G. Siegler is committing the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Texas_sharpshooter_fallacy">Texas Sharp-Shooter Fallacy</a>.</p>

<blockquote>A Texan fires a dozen shots at the side of a barn, half of them miss.  He draws a target around the area that he hit and declares himself the best gun-slinger in the west.</blockquote>

<p>It's tempting - far too tempting - to fall for the lie that because "<a href="https://soundcloud.com/fred-astaire-official/they-all-laughed-48549390">they all laughed at Christopher Columbus</a>", they are equally misdirected when laughing at us.</p>

<p><em>Every</em> successful company had a legion of people telling them that they were doomed.  Let's take a quick look at some examples and counter-examples:</p>

<table>
<tbody><tr>
<td></td>
<td><h3 id="it-sucks"><a href="https://shkspr.mobi/blog/2015/12/first-they-ignore-you-then-they-laugh-at-you-then-they-fight-you-then-you-lose/#it-sucks">"It Sucks!"</a></h3></td>
<td><h3 id="this-rocks"><a href="https://shkspr.mobi/blog/2015/12/first-they-ignore-you-then-they-laugh-at-you-then-they-fight-you-then-you-lose/#this-rocks">"This Rocks!"</a></h3></td>
</tr>

<tr>
<td><h3 style="text-align:right;" id="failed"><a href="https://shkspr.mobi/blog/2015/12/first-they-ignore-you-then-they-laugh-at-you-then-they-fight-you-then-you-lose/#failed">Failed</a></h3></td>
<td>Zune<br>Phorm</td>
<td>Ouya<br>Firefly (too soon?)</td>
</tr>


<tr>
<td><h3 style="text-align:right;" id="succeeded"><a href="https://shkspr.mobi/blog/2015/12/first-they-ignore-you-then-they-laugh-at-you-then-they-fight-you-then-you-lose/#succeeded">Succeeded</a></h3></td>
<td>Square<br>iPod</td>
<td>Android<br>Tesla</td>
</tr>

</tbody></table>

<p>You can add your own selection of companies and products to that table depending on your prejudices.</p>

<p>It's never a great idea to read the bottom half of the web - the idiots, trolls, sycophants, and spammers will drive you crazy.  But, like the proverbial stopped clock, they are occasionally right.</p>

<p>Don't give up on your dreams just because some prat says you'll never make the big time.   Equally, don't be deluded into thinking that if they're disparaging you, then you <em>must</em> be on the right path.  There have been many people who were <a href="http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Politics/2011/0603/Political-misquotes-The-10-most-famous-things-never-actually-said/First-they-ignore-you.-Then-they-laugh-at-you.-Then-they-attack-you.-Then-you-win.-Mohandas-Gandhi">ignored, laughed at, and attacked</a> who <strong>still lost!</strong></p>
<img src="https://shkspr.mobi/blog/wp-content/themes/edent-wordpress-theme/info/okgo.php?ID=22099&HTTP_REFERER=RSS" alt="" width="1" height="1" loading="eager">]]></content:encoded>
					
					<wfw:commentRss>https://shkspr.mobi/blog/2015/12/first-they-ignore-you-then-they-laugh-at-you-then-they-fight-you-then-you-lose/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
			<slash:comments>1</slash:comments>
		
		
			</item>
	</channel>
</rss>
