Last night I attended a local hustings for the General Election.

The two candidates I was most interested to hear from were Andrew Smith (Labour) and Ann Duncan (Green). The Tory candidate pulled out due to a family emergency, and UKIP didn't bother to show up. The LibDem candidate also was a no show and instead sent a rather inarticulate student in his place.

We also were treated to candidates from both The Socialist Party of Great Britain and the Trade Unionist & Socialist Coalition - proving once again that the far left would rather be ideologically pure than wield any degree of power. Bloody splitters!

In the end, the only two speakers who actually offered coherent policy suggestions were the Greens and Labour. The others were extremely confused ("MAGNA CARTER!!!!!"), delusional ("Once we abolish money..."), or Liberal Democrats ("TTIP is great and will exclude the NHS.")

One of the questions posed to the candidates was around the introduction of biometric IDs in Oxford schools. This isn't an area I know much about - but the candidates were passionately against it. Andrew Smith gave a tub-thumpingly good answer on why it was a dangerous idea and how systems like this were renowned for failing safeguards and mission-creep.

This, I thought, was curious. It was Andrew Smith who tried to introduce Biometric ID cards for all British Citizens.

I asked him directly why he voted for ID cards if he thought they were such a bad idea. He replied (and I'm paraphrasing) "I am against biometric ID cards, and my voting record reflects that."

I pointed out that I was looking at his voting record on ID cards - and it clearly showed that he voted for every single measure. He said the situation was "more subtle than that" - and we moved onto the next question.

Now, I have a lot of respect for Mr Smith. He's always answered my letters, he's against Trident, and has a good voting record on most of the issues I care about. But this was a bare faced lie.

If he'd have said "I was for them, but after looking at all the evidence and listening to my constituents, I've come to the conclusion that I was wrong" - I would have happily accepted that. If he'd said he was still in favour of them in certain circumstances, I would have respected his integrity. But such a blatant rewriting of history is unacceptable.

Here he is, speaking in the House of Commons in 2003 :

Here is a letter to the Oxford Mail complaining about his stance.

At every stage, he voted for Biometric ID cards.

I went into the debates eager to hear from the Green party, but looking forward to voting in a Labour MP for the first time in my life. Instead, I was left with the impression that after 30 years of the same MP, it's time for Oxford East to choose a new representative.

This chart from Wikipedia shows how Oxford East voted last time.

It doesn't look hopeful for the Greens. But I'm not convinced that it's an impossible task. UKIP and the Tories will split the right-wing vote. The students who voted LibDem last time will (hopefully) abandon them following the tuition fee betrayal. If a substantial chunk of them go for a Green alternative rather than the Tory-lite Labour party, and the Labour vote collapses like in did in 2005, it's possible for the the Greens to win here.

Unlikely, sure. But I'd rather vote for a World Bank Economist who believes in social justice, than an MP content to throw his voting record down the memory hole.

Do I agree with 100% of the Green Manifesto? No. But I've had enough of being lied to by Labour politicians. It's time for a change - it's time for a Green alternative.

Vote for Ann Duncan on May 7th.

Using data from The Guardian, we can see if the Lib Dems cost Labour a majority.

In how many seats did a Labour candidate lose to a Conservative? 137.

But this doesn't tell the whole story. In Clacton, even if all the 5,577 Lib Dem votes had gone to Labour, the 16,376 is still well short of the Conservative's 22,867.

So, in how many of those seats, would the Labour candidate have won if every single Lib Dem voted Labour? 92.

Conclusion

If every Lib Dem voter in a Lab/Con marginal had voted Labour, the result would be Con = 214 Lab = 350 Lib = 57

So, the Labour Party would have ~3% majority in Parliament. Only 24 seats. A majority, sure, but not a hugely useful one.

Remember, that's assuming every single Lib Dem voter in a Lab/Con constituency voted Labour.

Would you call that the Lib Dems costing Labour the election?

The Stats

This table show every Conservative won seat where Labour came 2nd. What would have happened if 100%, 75%, or 50% of the Lib Dem vote went to Labour. As some have mentioned in the comments, there is no guarantee that Lib Dem voters would automatically vote Labour. Given that support for the Lib Dems only went up 1% nationally, it's hard to credit Labour's defeat to the Lib Dems.



I want to explain why - without resorting to attacking the other parties.

Voting Reform

As I've said, I was raised in a Labour household.  I went to university expecting to vote Labour.  Yet in ever constituency I've ever lived, the Labour Party haven't fielded a viable candidate.  It costs a lot of money to run an election, so naturally parties only focus on where they think they have a realistic chance of winning.

Because of the ridiculousness of "First Past The Post" any vote for a minority party would be wasted.  So I never got to vote Labour.  Instead, I read the Lib Dem and Conservative manifesto and picked the LibDems.

I dare say I would like to vote Labour again in the future, but I want to do it when my vote will matter.  If the only thing a LibDem coalition / government bring about is voting reform, I'd be happy.

Tax

I was always taught that you shouldn't vote for the party that benefits you personally - you should vote for the party that provides the best for society.  I would probably be financially better off under a Conservative government.  Their plans for tax (assuming they or any other party stick to their promises) would help me out.

But this election isn't about me.  It's about everyone.  I am a big fan of reducing the tax burden on people who aren't as lucky as me.  Essentially, the LibDem plan would eliminate income tax for anyone who was making the minimum wage (£5.80 * 35 hours a week * 52 weeks a year = £10,556. The LibDem plan is for the starting rate of income tax to be £10,000).

While I may profit slightly from this tax break - imagine how it would benefit hundreds of thousands of families who could then afford the things I take for granted.  Better educational opportunities, entertainment to keep their kids from running wild, the occasional holiday, better and fresher food, a computer, broadband, and reduced stress from financial hardship.

Digital Economy Act

So much has been written about the Digital Economy Bill / Act, it feels pointless to rehash it.  Despite the best efforts of some brave Labour politicians, the bill passed.  The Conservative front bench said how much they despised the bill - yet they voted for it anyway.  The LibDems were the only party to fundamentally oppose the bill. I felt they could have been stronger.  Their performance in the House of Lords was very dispiriting, with LibDem Lords inserting a clause written by the BPI.

The bill was written and debated mostly by people with no grasp on modern technology.  The LibDems are the only party that I have seen who have embraced the Internet and are trying to find positive solutions for some of the challenges it presents.

Nuclear Armageddon

As a child of the eighties, I was spared most of the horrors of "Protect and Survive".  I don't want to live in a country where - by accident or design - we could kill billions of people with a push of a button.  Maybe I'm a softie with no experience of how the real world works - but I think the world would be safer without a nuclear deterrent.

Traditionally, the Labour Party has been closely allied with CND - the Campaign for Nuclear Disarmament - but you wouldn't know it from their actions.

The LibDems are committed to not renewing Trident. However, they do want to replace it with a smaller nuclear arsenal.  I don't think they  are going far enough. We should join South Africa and completely disarm.

Regardless of whether Trident is scrapped or replaced with a cheaper option, the money saved can be better used for other things.

In October 1952, Britain successfully tested a nuclear bomb. It can be argued that our nuclear "deterrent" has been in place ever since. We cannot know which countries haven't attacked us because of our bomb, but we do know it hasn't deterred....

• Korean War (1950–1953)
• Mau Mau Uprising (1952–1960)
• Cyprus Emergency (1955–1959)
• Suez Crisis (1956)
• Brunei Revolt (1962)
• Dhofar Rebellion (1962-1975)
• Indonesia-Malaysia confrontation (1962–1966)
• Aden Emergency (1963–1967)
• Northern Ireland Troubles (1969-mid 1990s)
• Cod War Confrontation (1975–1976)
• Falklands War (1982)
• The First Gulf War (1990–1991)
• The Bosnian War (1995–1996)
• The Kosovo War (1999)
• Sierra Leone Civil War (2000)
• The Global War on Terror (2001-Present)
• The Afghanistan War (2001–Present)
• Iraq War and Iraqi insurgency (2003–2009)

In each of those conflicts, our nuclear arsenal hasn't been enough to stop British troop being killed, British interests being attacked and infringement on our sovereignty.

With the rise in Christian terrorism and Islamic terrorism, there is a strong argument that we have no one to use these weapons against.  Would we ever be justified in staging a nuclear attack on a location from which terrorists may have originated?

Etc.

I could fill another several pages with my thoughts on ID Cards, civil liberties, libel reform, press freedom, sustainable energy, the environment, the recession, the wider economy, live music, Europe, Parliamentary reform, expenses.  Suffice to say, after reading and comparing the manifestos, I feel more closely aligned with the Liberal Democrats on most - but not all - issues.

What Do I Want?

Because of our unfair voting system, I think it's highly unlikely that the LibDems will form a majority - I doubt they'll even be hugely strong minority.  I want them to govern but - more than that - I hope newspapers, politicians, people and institutions will realise that there's more than two sides to every argument.  That the UK deserves the best government possible.  That our votes must be counted fairly.  That there is another way of doing things than flipping between two parties again and again and again.

I want the next government to set politics in a new direction.

I think that the Liberal Democrats are the only realistic choice for me. Both in the area where I live and nationally. This isn't a protest vote - this is a commitment.

I Agree With Nick.

I'm what you would probably describe as a natural Labour voter. I'm middle class, the son of teachers, University educated, member and representative of the NUS, I'm employed by a big British company, I'm a proud union member and a home owner.  I even spoke at the TUC before Gordon Brown took the stage.

I probably won't be voting Labour in the next General Election. I say probably, because you still have a chance to win me back.

Allow me to explain.

I was a few months short of being able to vote in the 1997 general election. But I campaigned hard for you; as hard as a 17 year old can.

I was ecstatic when you won. I stayed up all night celebrating.  This was going to be the start of a bright new future. I was looking forward to voting for you as soon as possible.

Then a strange thing happened. You hit me with tuition fees. My family could just about afford it, but it felt like a small betrayal.

You introduced the minimum wage - you set it too low, but that's the compromise of politics. What hurt was keeping it artificially low for younger workers.

There were many other ups and downs - no party is perfect - but I was generally happy.

When it came to the first election, I tried really hard to vote for you - but you wouldn't let me! In every ward and constituency I have ever voted in, you've not either not fielded a candidate or had such a poor showing that I would be wasting my vote.

Your intransigence in sticking to the first past the post voting method caused me to hold my nose & vote for the Liberal Democrats; anything to keep the Tories / UKIP / BNP out.

You've stymied my attempts to vote for you! The outdated method of voting discourages new voters. This needs to be remedied. It may mean you lose some of your power - but that's democracy.

I'll skip over House of Lords reform and a lot of other issues - creationism in schools, corruption, -  all of which I'm passionate about, but they're better addressed by more eloquent bloggers. I'll  concentrate on the three points which now prevent me from voting for you.

The Iraq War

You knowingly lied to us and, in my opinion, allowed this country to become involved in War Crimes. Millions of us marched against this war and you ignored us. Then you had the temerity to say that people were disengaged with the political process! We are not disengaged with you - you have abandoned us!

ID Cards

These are symptomatic of the utter disregard with which you hold our civil liberties. They are a costly boondoggle which have no tangible benefits. Make no mistake, there are thousands of us prepared to stage mass civil disobedience - including imprisonment - to convince you to scrap this illogical and wasteful plan.

Your slavish adherence to The Daily Mail

It seems that you would gladly abandon any principle in order to get a good write-up in the gutter press. Every time they run one of their petty, bullying, coniving "campaigns" you feel the need to cave in to them. You've failed to realise that the mainstream press is rapidly becoming insignificant. Every time you give in to them, you abandon your supporters a little more.

...and breathe...

Now, obviously you're doing something right; you keep winning elections. Albeit with a smaller & smaller share each time.

But you have lost me - a natural Labour voter.  At the European Elections, I'll be voting for the Liberal Democrats.

However, it's not too late! You can still win me back.

• Grow a backbone. Stand up to your detractors. Keep your principles. When the Daily Mail has a pop at you - ignore them.
• You have a mandate from the people; act like it. Let people judge you on your record, not on the lies they read in the press.
• Give us the reforms which you started in 1997.  Make British democracy a shining beacon to the world - not a fusty, dying, inefficient relic.
• Remember that you govern at our pleasure. Keep us free, safe and happy.
• Apologise.  You've done wrong. You know it.  We're smart enough to know the difference between a course correction and a U-turn.

I'm enjoying what I see of the Lib Dems. They have smart policies and relatively uncorrupted MPs.  If you don't start addressing your problems, you'll find more and more of your natural voters abandon you.

I know you can change. Remember, while the polls for you are at rock bottom; things can only get better.

Yours etc...