https://shkspr.mobi/blog Regular nonsense about tech and its effects 🙃 Fri, 05 Nov 2021 13:56:36 +0000 en-GB © Terence Eden. 🄯 CC BY-SA. See https://shkspr.mobi/blog/copyright-and-copyleft/ hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=7.1.3 https://shkspr.mobi/blog/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/cropped-avatar-32x32.jpeg https://shkspr.mobi/blog 32 32 https://shkspr.mobi/blog/2021/11/no-one-knows-whats-coming-next/ https://shkspr.mobi/blog/2021/11/no-one-knows-whats-coming-next/#comments Fri, 12 Nov 2021 12:34:27 +0000 https://shkspr.mobi/blog/?p=40706 <p>The book <a href="https://amzn.to/3mmnJMb">Antifragile</a> is pretty bad. Like most popular management books, it's a single useful idea padded out with anecdotes.</p> <p>Some organisations are overly reliant on the status quo. If a single thing changes, it can be catastrophic. For example, a sudden shortage of HGV drivers causes their entire supply chain to collapse and they go bankrupt. These organisations are <em>fragile</em>.</p> <p>Some organisations <em>thrive</em> on chaos. Every time things change, they can take advantage and improve. For example, a sudden lockdown occurs and their distributed and trusted team can leapfrog their competitors. These organisations are <em>antifragile</em>.</p> <p>They <em>gain</em> from <em>external</em> disruption.</p> <p>We have to be prepared for change. Constant, relentless, chaotic change. Every thought-leader on LinkedIn and Forbes will tell you what they <em>think</em> is the next big change, but no one really knows.</p> <p>So! Let's workshop some unlikely events (call 'em "Black Swans") and see what changes they might bring?</p> <h2 id="the-internet-collapsing"><a href="https://shkspr.mobi/blog/2021/11/no-one-knows-whats-coming-next/#the-internet-collapsing">The Internet collapsing</a></h2> <p>We've all had a day when "the email system's fucked" right? Imagine that email stopped <em>around the world!</em> Are you in a position to outperform your competitors because you have tried and tested manual processes? What are your workarounds for disaster? How do they cope with a distributed workforce?</p> <h2 id="your-business-being-declared-illegal"><a href="https://shkspr.mobi/blog/2021/11/no-one-knows-whats-coming-next/#your-business-being-declared-illegal">Your business being declared illegal</a></h2> <p>An existential risk for some industries. This might happen slowly (tobacco) or quickly (dodgy crypto-exchanges). What could you <em>immediately</em> pivot to if needed?</p> <h2 id="the-ceo-having-a-heart-attack"><a href="https://shkspr.mobi/blog/2021/11/no-one-knows-whats-coming-next/#the-ceo-having-a-heart-attack">The CEO having a heart attack</a></h2> <p>The good-old "Bus Factor". At some point your CEO, or lead developer, or person who unlocks the doors in the morning - is going to have a fatal accident. Do you have a succession plan?</p> <h2 id="encryption-being-defeated"><a href="https://shkspr.mobi/blog/2021/11/no-one-knows-whats-coming-next/#encryption-being-defeated">Encryption being defeated</a></h2> <p>Either a flaw in a popular cipher, or a 12 year old in Uzbekistan has accidentally figured out a way to factor prime numbers on a Casio calculator. What business can you do without a way to keep your secrets secret?</p> <h2 id="sudden-fashion-change"><a href="https://shkspr.mobi/blog/2021/11/no-one-knows-whats-coming-next/#sudden-fashion-change">Sudden fashion change</a></h2> <p>"Ugh! No one uses X any more!" declares some <em>influencer</em>. And, just like that, your entire youth market switches to a competitor. Now what?</p> <h2 id="what-next"><a href="https://shkspr.mobi/blog/2021/11/no-one-knows-whats-coming-next/#what-next">What next?</a></h2> <p>The point of these exercises isn't to determine exactly what you would do in those precise circumstances. Think of them like conversation starters - what could we do <em>today</em> in case something like that happened tomorrow?</p> <p>What are your favourite "unexpected events"?</p> <img src="https://shkspr.mobi/blog/wp-content/themes/edent-wordpress-theme/info/okgo.php?ID=40706&amp;HTTP_REFERER=RSS" alt="" width="1" height="1" loading="eager"> https://shkspr.mobi/blog/2021/11/no-one-knows-whats-coming-next/feed/ 3