Regarding the UK mobile phone networks, I actually had to remind myself just now which ones are left... just four: O2, Vodafone, EE & Three. Since EE has joined forces with BT, and O2 with Virgin Media, who's got the pockets deep enough to snag Vodafone or (perhaps more likely) Three? I can't see a Vodafone-Three merger getting approval unless the competition regulars are ordered by someone to wave it through. (Given the makeup of our current government, that is a possibility.) But perhaps the network that turns their toes up turns out to be one of the other two, either through their own failure or because BT or Virgin get cold feet... I suspect that Apple will open up just enough to a) appease the EU, and b) give Epic, Meta, Google and others enough rope for nooses. I say that because none of those parties will be fully satisfied and will keep complaining, but it'll become obvious that what they really want is to bypass iOS / iPadOS entirely so they can Collect All The Info at their leisure. That will not end well... for them. Your prediction on Fediverse stuff getting easier to install and manage is probably the safest one, though it'll be interesting to see who forks and how they go about it.