I guess it depends what you use Flickr for. I've never got the appeal of having my photos in a group (or whatever they're called) run by someone else. I like seeing my friends' photos - but they could just as easily be held on a dozen different servers. I totally get that it's enjoyable for some people.

You can, on OpenPhoto, still have a single URL for your photos. Mine's http://edent.openphoto.me (not live yet). Which, in itself, is not much different from the centralised FB & Flickr. The only difference is that the images are hosted on your servers - not theirs. Of course, this means the onus is on you to look after your data rather than hoping that a third party doesn't screw it up.

I think you're wrong about it being a retrograde step. I think we'll see more content hosted personally (probably on a mobile device) which is then backed up redundantly. It's something that I'm trying to figure out at the moment - can you run a LAMP stack on your Android phone which is then permanently connected?

Interesting times ahead, anyway.