interesting post, since I am in NFC business daily and obviously you are not.
We try comparing a dishwasher and a washing machine? Both do cleaning, but in the end they aren't really designed for the same purpose, are they?
I don't really think that an EMV application or a PKI application can be ported on QR Codes; NFC is designed for it. NFC is not only about tag reading: there are 3 functioning modes (smartcard emulation, reader emulation and peer-to-peer), so potential is much bigger than just storing/ reading a url.
Now, as to determine if Tag format is better in QR codes or NFC (RFID) stickers? It is only a matter of wanting to determine if the advertising/ message will require future updates or dynamic content. Data storage capability is not the same as well, neither is the price. It is much more linked to application context than a matter of knowing who is best from technology point of view.
NFC will spread, otherwise big names wouldn't look into it, the only question is to do what: Open your car / house door? Sign online your loan? Use it as transit card on the phone? Smart ads? I don't see it as a QR code killer, it is just different.